About Mobility

Don’t forget this week’s Carnival of the Mobilists, number 155 and the first one of 2009, at Helen Keegan’s weblog Musings of a Mobile Marketer. This edition is packed with great essays, a must read! Thanks to Helen for including my entry… Happy New Year!

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Source: THE NIELSEN COMPANY ISSUES TOP TEN U.S. LISTS FOR 2008.

Motorola on the top and Nokia on the bottom - wow. And in between in that order: LG, Apple and BlackBerry. Wow again. The US does operate differently than the rest of the world! I wonder for how much longer that will hold true.

The following handsets all support Java ME / MIDP or BREW, SMS and mobile web browser applications; except for the iPhone of course.

I found the above via Mobile-Facts and it is quite funny (and probably even true!). The important concept here, even if not the best of examples, is that an open market and ecosystem is a very good thing…

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On my new book, I explain how to build up great abs…

(OK, ok, I am joking, but my wife had a great hard laugh)

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Source: Datamation/Mike Elgan.

There is a Wall Street Journal article about the Russian academic Igor Panarin who predicts the U.S. will fall apart in 2010…

…and his theory goes like this:

“There’s a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur,” he says. “One could rejoice in that process,” he adds, poker-faced. “But if we’re talking reasonably, it’s not the best scenario — for Russia.” Though Russia would become more powerful on the global stage, he says, its economy would suffer because it currently depends heavily on the dollar and on trade with the U.S.

With the US disintegrating and be split into 4 major regions like this:

And I say to Mr. Panarin, I think not! And even if the US gets into its worst scenario ever, it won’t be split into regions going to Russia, Canada, Mexico, China and Europe - that is the dumbest theory ever. Unless of course, the split is enforced by Aliens.

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Happy 2009 New Year to all my readers. My first post of the year is about mobile applications: local/native vs. native, and app-stores.

App-stores have been shifting the balance on application development and distribution (back) towards local/native applications. I don’t mean to undermine mobile web which will continue to be very important and very large for access of information of type “web content”. But the reason for this is the same reason I’ve been preaching for a long time: the ability to deliver/maximize “application richness, functionality and experiences” - which (today) maximizing these is only possible via local/native applications. This is the same topic took Ajit and myself into a debate at JavaOne’s keynote a couple of years; that was fun.

What I’m describing above can be seen on the iPhone which is the best mobile web handset today, and which redefined and raised the bar on mobile web applications, yet the really cool applications are local/native, and more importantly, developers of local/native applications seem to be the ones who are generating (receiving) the most revenue - after all, it is about making money. And this trend will continue… I do believe that in the future mobile web will be able to match the richness and functionality of local/native applications, once the proper APIs and functionality are put in place and become standard, and that today a happy medium are local/native applications that consume mobile web content; i.e. hybrid apps providing the best of both worlds.

And when combining the above with App-stores, which provide for the application discovery and revenue streams for developers, the market place becomes very attractive and thus active.

But to be successful, app-stores must exhibit certain characteristics:

• From the end-user perspective: the app store must be seamless and well integrated into the user experience. Downloaded applications must work. There must be a good selection of high-quality apps. Integrated checkout/payment is easy and straightforward and secure. The end-user is in control, including influencing how applications will perform on the market (via feedback that influences ranking).
• From the developer perspective: there must be a low cost and barriers to entry and distribution. Must provide application visibility (see below). Good revenue model. Provide feedback back to developers for improvement.
• Application visibility: the app store must provide the means for good application visibility. Already established applications are ranked appropriately based on user feedback, while new applications (including new versions) go into a different bucket that allows them to be visible regardless of ranking (perhaps for a period of time).
• As Ajit writes, must provide a true ecosystem (that benefits everyone: developers, network providers, the end-user, and so on).

Part of the above is why the iPhone has been successful. And is also the reason that I expect the Android app store to do well once it starts paying back to developers — it is just then when the Apple and Android stores can be compared.

There are app stores for Java ME, for example GetJar. The problem faced by GetJar is that there are things that are out of their control, such as cost and barriers to entry (due to fragmentation and certifications and fees and it is just a pain-in-the-neck to deal with network operators issues in general), and not being well integrated (seamless integration) into the overall user experience.

For years I’ve been attributing the lack of integrated solution for Java ME that works (per the above) for application discovery and download and revenue share, as one of the top the reasons why Java ME has failed to maximize its opportunity. As a member of MIDP expert group, this is an important lessons learned for me, that sometimes you do need to include such functionality into the platform vs. expecting 3rd parties to solve the problem; this seamless solution is still needed for Java ME…

On Goodbye 2008 and welcome 2009 and some predictions on mobility I made some predictions on app stores, which I will repeat here:

• Google will introduce a checkout process for its app store, and developers wanting to make money will notice; the Google app store will explode with a large number of applications.
• App stores will continue to have its huge effect on mobile apps and distribution. Due to the revenue and fast distribution models offered by iPhone and soon Android app stores, developers will first target such local applications (vs. mobile web). An even larger number of local/native applications will be created and distributed via app stores for Android and iPhone.
• The BlackBerry app store will be somewhat successful.
• Someone will introduce an app store for mobile web that goes beyond an application catalog. dotMobi will take leadership by going beyond an application catalog but also providing an associated business/revenue model.

Last but not least, and related to this topic, check out Paul Golding (Wireless Wanders) on his video blog entry Mobile 2008/9 all about App Stores where he discusses and provides his insight on why app stores have been important in 2008 and how important they will be in 2009… right on.

Also related to this see Ajit on Mobile Web Megatrends event - Making money from Appstores - Singapore - April 27 and 28, as well as his related thread on ForumOxford.

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Worldwide Mobile Subscriber Penetration

With 42% penetration in 2008 and 53% penetration by 2014 worldwide.

US Mobile Subscriber Penetration

With 88% penetration in 2008 and 104% penetration by 2014 in the United States. The above numbers for the US matches the penetration numbers reported by CTIA for 2008 of 88%; as I blogged the other day, “as of today, CTIA reports there are 269,605,965 subscribers in the US, while the US census shows there are 305,477,551 people in the US (Dec 24 2008)”. By 2014 US subscriber based is projected to be past 100%.

Yes the above numbers for the US are lower and slower than other parts of the world, but taking into consideration the size of the US population, it really is a great penetration (i.e., it is much harder and takes longer to penetrate a very large population).

There is a correlation between population size and subscriber penetration. To show this below you can see the correlation between “advanced country” as defined by Tomi Ahonen’s in his book Mobile as the 7th Mass Media (a great book that I recommend) vs. size of population, with Japan being the exception; the list below follows the order of “Advanced Mobile Countries” table in page 285 of the book:

• Japan Population: 127,433,494 (July 2007 est.)
• Korea, South Population: 49,044,790 (July 2007 est.)
• Italy Population: 58,147,733 (July 2007 est.)
• Austria Population: 8,199,783 (July 2007 est.)
• United Kingdom Population: 60,776,238 (July 2007 est.)
• Finland Population: 5,238,460 (July 2007 est.)
• Israel Population: 7,112,359 (July 2008 est.)
•         :
• Singapore Population: 4,553,009 (July 2007 est.)
•         :
• Hong Kong Population: 6,980,412 (July 2007 est.)
•         :
• France Population: 64,057,792 (July 2008 est.)
•         :

The following countries are not in the list of advanced countries, but have the largest population:

• China Population: 1,321,851,888 (July 2007 est.)
• India Population: 1,129,866,154 (July 2007 est.)
• United States Population: 301,139,947 (July 2007 est.) — in Texas alone as of 2006 there were 23,507,783

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Source: Frost & Sullivan | Visions 2009 Paradigm Shifts in Mobile & Wireless Communications | J. Gerry Purdy, Ph.D., CIA World Factbook, Fact Monster, US Census Bureau

Not only landlines are being replaced by mobile phones, but according to the Annual TeleGeography study of the international voice market, international long-distance calling is also moving to mobile handsets:

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A recent report by the PEW Internet Project titled Networked Workers reveals a couple of interesting numbers on texting usage in the USA:

General Numbers on Technology Usage by “Networked Workers”

1. 93% own a cell phone, compared with 78% of all American adults
2. 85% own a desktop computer, compared with 65% of all adults
3. 61% own a laptop computer, compared with 39% of all adults
4. 27% own a Blackberry, Palm or other personal digital assistant, compared with 13% of all adults

Great mobile handset penetration numbers, but I would have thought it was higher. As of today, CTIA reports there are 269,605,965 subscribers in the US, while the US census shows there are 305,477,551 people in the US (Dec 24 2008).

On Americans Who Use Text Messaging

1. 66% of those ages 30-49 use text messaging
2. 15% say that at least half of their exchanges throughout the day are work-related
3. 28% say they exchange text messages with friends and family at least once a day while at work
4. 17% exchange messages with colleagues, according to Pew Internet Project

Event the older adults are catching up to texting. This is happening faster than I was expecting…

On BlackBerry Users Who Use Text Messaging

1. 59% of cell phone or Blackberry owners use text messaging
2. 47% say that all or most of their text messaging is personal
3. 2% say that all or most is work-related
4. 9% say that their text messaging is evenly split between work-related and personal exchanges

Even on BlackBerry, an email-focused device, texting is becoming an important communication channel.

On Personal vs. Work Text Messaging

1. 28% say all are personal
2. 16% say most are personal
3. 25% say about half and half personal/work
4. 21% say most are for work
5. 11% say all are for work

I was surprised that work-texting is always as high as all personal or half personal/work. That is an interesting trend.

Other information from the report says that “Nearly half of all working Americans do at least some work from home” — that’s right, almost half of Americans are all workaholics!

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According to Gartner, worldwide smartphone sales reached its lowest growth rate with 11.5% increase in 3rd quarter of 2008. It also says that Nokia is the #1 smartphone manufacturer/seller:

Worldwide smartphone sales to end-users totalled 36.5 million units in the third quarter of 2008, an 11.5 per cent increase from the same period in 2007.
:

Nokia maintained its No. 1 position with 42.4 per cent market share in the third quarter of 2008, but for the first time it recorded a decline in sales of 3 per cent year-on-year (see Table 1). “Nokia is feeling the pressure from increased competition in the consumer smartphone market,” said Ms Cozza.

Table: Worldwide: Preliminary Smartphone Sales to End Users by Vendor, 3Q08 (Thousands of Units)

I believe Nokia’s lack of touchscreen handset that competed with the iPhone and Android (and others) really harmed them in 2008, and that releasing a touch-based handset in 2009 should be a top priority for Nokia.

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Antonio Goncalves writes that Everybody should be able to easily observe JSRs.

Yes, I agree. But it really is more than just being able to observe. I was an Observer for the MSA 1.0 Expert Group (EG) and other EGs; but not all spec-leads are created equal. I quickly realized that for certain EGs, in this case MSA 1.0, being an Observer didn’t mean much as Observer’s input was not really taken into consideration and not followed up. A number of Observers were not happy about this, and I personally kind of gave up. Too bad, as it was their loss.

Part of the reason the EGs are closed is due to the Intellectual Property (IP) and related legal issues. That is the first thing that needs to be addressed, so that EGs can really become open. A true open process will have a common license and companies must be willing to give up the IP, otherwise, those companies unwilling to do that should remain on the proprietary business and not allowed to participate.

The other legal-related issue that needs to be addressed is that even though many people and companies contribute to a specific Java Specification (JSR), as I have, at the end the owner of the JSR is the company that led the JSR (i.e. Specification Lead); meaning that company will own all related IP created by all EG members, and that the company defines the licensing terms. I always found this totally unfair and this needs to changed as well.

As I predict, 2009 should be a big turning point year for Java, the JCP, and mobile Java…

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It has been one year since the last time that I hosted the Carnival of the Mobilists. And it is with great pleasure that I bring you the Carnival of the Mobilists #154, the last one for 2008.

This week we have a number of great entries from top Mobilists from the blogosphere. So let’s get started.

Our first entry is from Raddedas (Techype blog) who writes Trutap - Riot-E for the IM Generation. Here Raddedas compares the recent events of Trutap with Riot-E. Trutrap has generated a lot of noise recently with its demise. And all I’m going to say about them is that the Trutap folks are great set of folks, and that it is very easy to comment on things as an outsider. It takes a lot of courage to go through what the Trutap folks are going through as we speak.

Next we have more on Trutap, this time from Ajit (Opengardens blog) who looks at this but from a different angle: lessons learned. In his piece Lessons from Trutap: Part two - Do we need a Zopa like funding model for the Mobile data industry? he looks into a different funding model for the mobile industry startups.

Our next entry is from mobile broadband expert Martin Sauter (WirelessMoves blog) who writes German Computer Magazine measures 5.76 MBit/s in HSDPA Downlink, where Martin educates us on some published numbers related to HSDPA Downlink.

Next, Barbara Ballard (Little Srpings Design) writes UX discussion at Off-Deck Mobile Content where she ponders on the user experience design for off-deck versus on-deck applications; a great read. In addition, Barbara gives us a bonus entry on animation from her book on the Designing the Mobile User Experience

Next is one of my favorite authors, Tomi T Ahonen (Communities Dominate blog). His entry Trillion with a T, the Newest Giant Industry has Arrived: the Money and Meaning of Mobile is a fascinating piece that walks us over market comparissons, SMS, MMS and other and how the mobile market has become a Trillion dollars industry.

Dennis Bournique (WapReview) writes The New Mobile Social Windows Live where he providers a great summary review (as usual) this time on the latest version of Microsoft’s mobile web version of Windows Live.

Rudy de Waele (m-trends.org) shares with us his insights from the recent Nokia World event on his piece The Bright South of Nokia.

The next entry is from Farooq (Systems View) where he writes Seven Mass Media –A framework. Here he adapts Tomi Ahonen’s Mobile as the Seven Mass Media concept as a Framework that allows him to better understand (and explain) the complex issues related to mobility for mass media. Interesting.

James Pearce (dotMobi), distinguished Mobilist joins us this week with a piece titled A Very Modern Mobile Switching Algorithm - Part II, a very interesting article on mobile web and the principles of handling mobile users and switching their experiences.

Our last two entries are about predictions for 2009. First we have Andrew Grill (London Calling blog) who writes On the money - those 2008 predictions that came true giving us his predictions for 2009. Second is my own entry (About Mobility) with my own set of predictions for 2009 more on the application space; see Goodbye 2008 and welcome 2009 and some predictions on mobility.

What a great set of entries. Selecting my favorite entry for this week is not easy and in fact I actually have two favorites ones: 1) Tomi T Ahonen’s Trillion with a T, the Newest Giant Industry has Arrived: the Money and Meaning of Mobile, and 2) James Pearce A Very Modern Mobile Switching Algorithm - Part II; congrats to both.

Please note that with this week’s Carnival we start the HOLIDAY BREAK, meaning that Carnival #154 is the last one for 2008. And with the holiday break, we will be taking the traditional 2-week off for the Holidays. The next Carnival of the Mobilists will go online on Monday, January 5, 2009.

And with this I would like to wish everyone of you a wonderful Christmas and Happy New Year!

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2008 was a very interesting year for me, with both failures and successes and tons of lessons learned. But life is good. 2009 will be a very interesting year for mobility and handsets and applications. An example of this was yesterday when I was on my way to the Orange Partners Conference. The bus driver taking us to the hotel was bragging about his 3G phone and mobile TV - yes the bus driver! And he had no problem paying for both data and mobile TV. Mobility adoption is happening!

So in the spirit of the 2008 end of the year, below are some of my predictions about mobility and 2009:

1. 2009 will be a great year for smartphones; perhaps it will be the year of the smartphone. The top smartphone handset and software players for the next 5 years will be defined in 2009.
2. The role of Open Source Software (OSS) will continue to grow within mobile handsets and software. Symbian will go open source. Android is open source. Browsers are open source. Windows Mobile I’m not sure but I won’t be surprised if they go open source as well. Device manufacturers will deliver more sophisticated handsets cheaper due to OSS.
3. Related to the above, the mobile browser will become commoditized, thanks to open source. A great example of this is the Steel browser for Android which seems to have been developed by a *single* developer leveraging the Web Kit.
4. On user interfaces and smartphones, touch-screens and gestures and accelerometers will be the rule, not the exception (thank you Apple).
5. SMS usage/growth will continue and mobile IM usage will remain pretty much flat.
6. Twitter will come up with a real revenue model and make some revenue. But it will be plagued by the demons of social networking that killed Trutap: “everyone loves social software, but few would pay for it”.
7. Symbian won’t take off (in 2009). Even in open source, which was a great move, Symbian will remain synonymous to Nokia. Few will try it, but at the end will move to Android. It will take a couple of years to fully realize the new Symbian vision.
8. The ideal of mobile web having access to local handset functionality won’t be fulfilled yet (to its fullest).
9. Android will become stronger and stronger with lots of support from all kinds of network providers and device manufacturers, but these vendors will have a difficult time differentiating themselves.
10. Google will start losing its coolness factor.
11. Google will introduce a checkout process for its app store, and developers wanting to make money will notice; the Google app store will explode with a large number of applications.
12. App stores will continue to have its huge effect on mobile apps and distribution. Due to the revenue and fast distribution models offered by iPhone and soon Android app stores, developers will first target such local applications (vs. mobile web). An even larger number of local/native applications will be created and distributed via app stores for Android and iPhone.
13. The BlackBerry app store will be somewhat successful.
14. Someone will introduce an app store for mobile web that goes beyond an application catalog. dotMobi will take leadership by going beyond an application catalog but also providinig an associated business/revenue model.
15. On the Java ME front, 2009 will be a turning point for the platform: MIDP3 vs. CDC + OSGi, JavaFX.
16. The top smartphone platforms for 2009 will be: iPhone, Android, and BlackBerry (for both mobile web and local apps) in the US. (update: I think I might not be putting enough emphasis on Nokia here and their new handsets).
17. Location, location, location everywhere in our apps. And end-users will learn to expect it.
18. MMS will continue to suck (in the US), due to proprietary implementations and lack of interoperability.
19. Lots of noise with WiMAX and LTE, with a few deployments.
20. No NFC in 2009.
21. Network providers will start delivering services of their own on the web (similar to Google services).
22. Network providers will show their love to widgets, and spend resources on widget-related approaches to applications and user interfaces.

Disclaimer: the above are my personal opinions and are not professional advise for business or personal decisions.

ceo

I like the image above (source: DesktopLinux.com). While not real (today), think about it. The machine boots up to a totally web-based experience. The application-bar at the bottom of the screen consists of widgets and icons (links) to web-based applications. One of the apps/widgets in the apps-bar is “boot or switch to OS” (for those who may want to switch). The desktop which is the browser runtime, is tabbed. The main applications on the desktop itself are live widgets. Because it is web-based, applications are automatically updated as needed. And all (web) applications work even disconnected, when there is no access to the network.

Yes, I’m sure this will happen, as it provides a simplified experience by default; there is a market for this. Back in 1998-2000 there was a company in Austin called Netpliance that tried something similar (different business model), but failed. Others tried too, and also failed. The market wasn’t ready. Maybe it is time to try again…

Via Browser swallows OS (DesktopLinux.com)

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The search for the meteor impact site is on in Alberta, Canada.

Dec 5 2008: Well, since Hulu TV removed the original video of the meteor, I had to replace it with a different meteor video below. But here is the link to the original video but at ABC News.

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